Sorry, Allar ain't the guy

Is this the week when all the ridiculously unwarranted Drew Allar hype dies down?

With apologies to Penn State fans, one can only hope.

After years of seeing the Nittany Lions essentially fail to really tap into their true offensive talents – RBs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen – while HC James Franklin and Co. caressed, coddled and carried Allar through the process of going from overrated recruit to even more overrated NFL prospect, it’s time Nittany Nation got the confirmation it needs to finally, and fully, realize AND accept reality.

He ain’t “the guy.”

Never was the guy.

Never is the guy.

Never will be the guy.

(Already saw the exact same bad act play out at Clemson with Dabo Swinney and Co. wasting the college careers of future pro RBs Will Shipley and Phil Mafah for the likes of QBs Cade Klubnik and D.J. Uiagalelei. They never were the guys there, either.)

Umm, that guy for Penn State – Beau Pribula – portaled himself to Missouri while Penn State forged ahead in last season’s college football playoff with an Allar thud looming large and eventually happening (as it always has with him) to end the Lions’ run.

So, as we enter Week 5 with another Upset Alert Saturday edition, with a bonus of two Friday night picks, those with a set of working, even if bespeckled, eyes and a desire to deal with what actually is instead of investing in complete wishful fabrication merely because a guy has the prototype build and looks good in a uniform, perhaps Oregon will set us all free Saturday night (7:30, NBC) in Happy Valley from all the madness about arm talent and maturity that, really, has never materialized.

Alas, it won’t be easy.

There’s the Whiteout Factor. There’s the overall PSU talent factor.

Mostly, though, the biggest factor is that the Ducks (4-0), currently ranked sixth in the country, haven’t exactly been tested this season.

Then again, neither has No. 3 Penn State (3-0).

Between the two, the most impressive performance probably was Oregon’s blowout win at home against 2024 FCS title entrant Montana State. Heck, Penn State’s best win may have been against FCS competition, too – in Villanova.

Allar has been “meh” at best, and no one else has exactly shined, either. Although much-anticipated transfer WR Trebor Pena has been a real nice find so far. As a runner.

Still, the Allar-centric Lions are favored by 3.5 points – if only by benefitting from playing before more than 100K of their more vocal and financially stable supporters.

Frankly, though, the Ducks have the better QB in Dante Moore (962 yards, 11 TDs, 195.9 passer rating … AND he can run) and Oregon HC Dan Lanning, at this point, certainly has the better rep than Franklin, not to mention a 45-37 victory over him in last season’s Big Ten championship game.

If the Ducks can keep Lions DE Dani Dennis-Sutton and LB Tony Rojas off Moore’s back and/or Oregon LB Bryce Boettcher can harken back to his baseball CF days and track down Allar (626 yards, 4 TDs, 137.3 passer rating), Allen and Singleton consistently, reality may be a bitter pill for many to swallow in Beaver Stadium.

FRIDAY

No. 8 Florida State (3-0) -6.5 at Virginia (3-1), 7 p.m., ESPN. The Cavs are breaking out the 1995 throwbacks to honor the 30th anniversary of them beating a No. 2-ranked FSU, handing the Seminoles their first ACC loss after starting 29-0 in the conference. So, karma is on Virginia’s side. As is the home crowd and a quality offense led by QB Chandler Morris.

No. 24 TCU (3-0) at Arizona State (3-1) -3.5, 9, FOX. Not sure why the Sun Devils are favored. Yeah, they have the bigger name QB (Sam Leavitt). But the Frogs have the better one this season (Josh Hoover), and they’ve already blown up Bill Belichick’s grand entrance as UNC HC and completely humbled 2024 playoff qualifier SMU. Both times on the road, too.

SATURDAY

No. 16 Georgia Tech (4-0) -13.5 at Wake Forest (2-1), 12 p.m., ESPN. The Demon Deacons are a different deal at home. They played underrated (actually unrated) N.C. State, which may end up being better than Tech this season, tough two weeks ago and then had last week off. Tech is good, but, really, how good? The spread seems too high.

No. 21 Southern Cal (4-0) -6.5 at No. 23 Illinois (3-1), 12, FOX. If the Fighting Illini are going to avoid the type of collapse that too often follows getting embarrassed by a conference rival (Indiana) in a heavily anticipated matchup, they gotta rebound at home … and win, not just cover. It won’t be easy with the nation’s top passer Jordan Maiava leading USC.

No. 1 Ohio State (3-0) -7.5 at Washington (3-0), 3:30, CBS. Love the Huskies in this spot. They’re averaging better than 60 points per game and have a Big Three on offense – QB Demond Williams Jr., RB Jonah Coleman and WR Denzel Boston – to rival any other, including what the Buckeyes bring to the table. At home + being unranked = more ammo.

No. 4 LSU (4-0) at No. 13 Ole Miss (4-0) -1.5, 3:30, ABC. If mind games factor, this one’s already a wrap with Tigers LB Whit Weeks and Landry Kiffin, Rebels HC Lane Kiffin’s daughter, announcing the “hard launch” of their relationship earlier this week. Gotta wonder if LSU HC Brian Kelly gave the thumbs up on that.

No. 15 Tennessee (3-1) -7.5 at Mississippi State (4-0), 4:15, SEC Network. The “waiting in the weeds” Bulldogs just upset then-No. 12 Arizona State a few weeks ago in Starkville. Can they pull off another stunner like that against the Vols? If UT’s Swiss-cheese defense, which ranks 100th in the nation in points per game allowed, is any indication, yes.