Expect Iowa to push Oregon

Kudos to the College Football Playoff committee for recognizing just how solid Iowa has been this fall. While most others have overlooked the Hawkeyes for the better part of three months, the initial CFP poll of the 2025 season that came out earlier this week had Iowa ranked No. 20 … and within striking distance of a playoff spot.

The Hawkeyes (6-2, 4-1 conference) likely will have to win out the rest of the regular season in order to grab an at-large berth, which puts them in the pole position for Week 11’s Upsets Alert edition with still-new Big Ten rival No. 9 Oregon coming to Iowa City and favored by 6.5 points.

The Ducks (7-1, 4-1) come in with the hype, the ballyhooed recruits, the better overall record, and the more popular uniforms, but, really, have they played better than their hosts?

Comparing results against the same competition largely suggests nothing. But one stands out.

Both teams have lost home games against current No. 2 Indiana, Oregon by 30-20 and Iowa 20-15. However, this much was clear: Oregon got pushed around by the Hoosiers. Iowa did not.

Indiana, in fact, needed a long TD pass connection with less than 90 seconds to go to pull things out against the Hawkeyes. Against the Ducks, the Hoosiers had little problem putting the game away long before that point in the game.

Obviously, matchups can play out different against a different opponent. It’s just Iowa seems such a good play for several reasons.

It is home.

Its fans are phenomenal.

It has a 235-pound QB in Mark Gronowski who not only knows how to beat opponents but physically punish them.

It has an extremely dangerous return man in Kaden Wetjen, who has been the second coming of Hawkeyes legend Tim Dwight in taking two punts and a kickoff to the house.

Oh, and a defensive front that includes Max Llewellyn (6 sacks), Aaron Graves (4) and Ethan Hurkett (4) causes problems for any opposing QB, including one as gifted as Oregon’s Dante Moore.

In other games to follow this weekend:

FRIDAY

Tulane (6-2) at Memphis (8-1) -3.5, 9, ESPN. The best dual-threat QB matchup of the weekend with the Green Wave’s Jake Retzlaff squaring off against the Tigers’ Brendon Lewis seems to favor the latter. Especially with Lewis and the Tigers at home. But just barely.

SATURDAY

No. 5 Georgia (7-1) -9.5 at Mississippi State (5-4), 12, ESPN. The Bulldogs very easily could have lost each of their last three games. They won’t be so fortunate in the land of cowbells.

SMU (6-3) -11.5 at Boston College (1-8), 12, ACC Network. The Mustangs’ hangover from upsetting then-No. 10 Miami last week hasn’t cleared yet.

James Madison (7-1) -13.5 at Marshall (4-4), 12, ESPN2. The burden of being alive for the Group of 5’s playoff spot may be starting to weigh heavy for the Dukes.

Temple (5-4) at Army (4-4) -6.5, 12, CBSSN. The Owls clinch bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019 in K.C. Keeler’s first year as their HC.

Maryland (4-4) at Rutgers (4-5) -2.5, 2:30, FS1. The Terrapins are actually pretty good. The Scarlet Knights? Where’s that shrug of uncertainty emoji?

Louisiana Tech (5-3) -5.5 at Delaware (4-4), 3, ESPN+. The Blue Hens have shown they belong in the FBS. A straight-up win here would bring bowl eligibility that much closer.

Duke (5-3) -9.5 at UConn (6-3), 3:30, CBSSN. The Huskies and seventh-year QB Joe Fagnano have a great opportunity to catch the nation’s attention.

No. 23 Washington (6-2) -10.5 at Wisconsin (2-6), 4:30, BTN. Maybe the Badgers will play inspired, knowing embattled HC Luke Fickell isn’t going anywhere. Maybe.

California (5-4) at No. 15 Louisville (7-1) -18.5, 7, ESPN2. The Cardinals haven’t exactly steamrolled any team, and the Bears are much better than their record would suggest.

Navy (7-1) at No. 10 Notre Dame (6-2) -26.5, 7:30, NBC/Peacock. The Middies don’t have the firepower to knock off the Irish, but they certainly have the game plan and the personnel to pull it off well enough to keep things relatively close.