College Football: FCS semifinals steal the show this weekend

Move over, big fellas.

It’s time for the little guys to take center stage.

Well, maybe not little guys. Just not quite as big guys.

As we head into the initial playoff portion of Upset Alert Special, gotta say, the FCS level looks a helluva lot more interesting than the FBS this weekend.

Not just because the FCS has its national semifinals going on. Thing is, those games are just better matchups, period, than what its brethren a step up has to offer – although that Friday night affair in Norman, Okla., may be enlightening for several reasons.

But, for now, we digress from that Alabama-Oklahoma rematch … at the same site a month ago.

So, let’s get into it.

FCS SEMIFINALS

Illinois State (11-4) -1.5 at 12-seed Villanova (12-2), 7:30 p.m., Saturday, ESPN2. On paper, and, frankly, in terms of intrigue, this may be the best matchup of the entire postseason, FCS or FBS.

Neither of these teams were supposed to be here, but unseeded Illinois State, the beneficiary of an at-large bid to the tournament, stunned top-seeded, top-ranked and prohibitive FCS championship favorite North Dakota State on its home turf two weeks ago before both it and Nova pulled off road upsets at UC Davis and Tarleton State, respectively, last week. The Wildcats, in fact, were down 14-0 to the fourth-seeded Texans before cashing in with a 26-21 victory.

The similarities between the two teams are remarkable.

Both have balanced offenses with a quality QB, a featured RB and WR, a star LB and depth. It’s just Nova has more depth, particularly at RB, and speed. And it’s home for this one. The Cats’ RB room is kinda crazy. Basically, they have thunder and lightning in David Avit (6-0, 225) and Ja’Briel Mace (5-9, 175). Then they have an in-between guy in Isaiah Ragland (5-9, 205). Combined, the three have rushed for better than 2,300 rushing yards and 22 TDs. Future opponents beware: They’re all sophomores.

But, back to the present. Nova also has 1,000-yard receiver Luke Colella and crafty lefty Pat McQuaide running the offense. The team’s real showstopper, though, may be Shane Hartzell. The senior LB leads the team with 89 tackles and 8 sacks.

The Redbirds counter with a near-mirror image. Junior LB Tye Niekamp gets your attention with 150 tackles while QB Tommy Rittenhouse, RB Victor Dawson and WR Daniel Sobkowicz offer the classic 3,000-1,000-1,000 production in terms of yardage. Illinois State also has shown a remarkable ability to bend but not break.

Not only have the Redbirds rallied from a stunning 37-7 loss in their regular-season finale to Southern Illinois to make this playoff run, but in their shocking victory at North Dakota State they overcame 5 INTs – yes, FIVE – by Rittenhouse, using a suffocating defense to absolutely embarrass the Bison offense, holding it to less than 170 yards.

So, this feels like a potentially one-for-the-ages contest … with home field, ultimately, playing a key role in the end result.

3-seed Montana (13-1) at 2-seed Montana State (12-2) -4, 4 p.m., Saturday, ABC. These two just squared off a month ago in Missoula, with the Bobcats winning, 31-28. Now home in Bozeman, last year’s FCS runners-up get a chance to double up on the pain to their archrival. Conversely, the revenge factor makes the upset pick here extremely tempting, even if Montana State has the most Christian McCaffrey-type multi-purpose threat this side of Navy’s Eli Heidenreich in college football.

FBS FIRST ROUND

9-seed Alabama (10-3) at 8-seed Oklahoma (10-2) -1.5, 8 p.m., Friday, ABC/ESPN. The reality is Bama has no business even being in the 12-team playoff. Forget the SEC title game loss to Georgia. The Tide were exorbitantly over-ranked before that game was even played. Here’s the thing, though: Yeah, they lost to the Sooners just a month ago, but they’re better than their hosts. They win and the Kalen DeBoer rumors to anywhere else can go on ice (thank the lord) … for a week.

10-seed Miami (10-2) at 7-seed Texas A&M (11-1) -3.5, 12 p.m., Saturday, ABC/ESPN. In the battle of the 2025 Notre Dame playoff-berth killers, the Aggies figure to have the advantage with the ever-hyped 12th Man. But do they? Outside of slipping by the Irish by 1 in September, they haven’t exactly been presenting any “wow” factor. Much the same could be said for Miami … since slipping by the Irish by 3 in August. Not much more than a hunch here. Besides, the Hurricanes advancing seems a better story.

11-seed Tulane (11-2) at 6-Mississippi (11-1) -17.5, 3:30 p.m., Saturday, TNT/HBO Max/TruTV. In the battle for “Doesn’t Anyone Want to Coach Us?,” chaos could reign … and not sure if Jon Sumrall’s presence on the Green Wave sideline helps or hurts more than Lane Kiffin not being on the Rebels’ sideline. Way too much is being made of the two teams’ meeting back in September when Ole Miss rolled 45-10. Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff won’t struggle like that again.

12-James Madison (12-1) at 5-Oregon (11-1), -21, 7:30 p.m., Saturday, TNT/HBO Max/TruTV. Admittedly, this one seems to be the most likely “on point” effort by the oddsmakers. But stranger things have happened then, say, the Dukes covering the spread here. Can’t see them winning the game in Autzen, but they’ll likely win the uniform matchup – despite the routine slobbering done by TV dolts over the Ducks’ attire.

KEEPING IT REAL

Upsets always are possible, albeit not likely. But if someone were inclined to make a wager on any of the games this weekend seeking to cash in on such, to me the best bets would be – in order – Alabama, Villanova and Miami to not only cover, but win outright.

After that, it would be Montana to cover, if not win outright. Although a repeat margin of its first encounter against Montana State – a 3-point loss – would not be surprising in the least.

The games involving the Group of 5 schools, though, they’re very much crapshoots, with a wild array of outcomes seemingly on the table. Words to the wise: Stay away. Even if you want to pick the favorites.